Like most people, I am presuming that Theresa May will lose the vote on her Brexit plan next week, and I'm wondering what will happen next. I imagine that it will be something like the following.
On 29th March 2019, the UK will officially leave the EU, then adhere to the trading regulations of the WTO; of which it has been a member since January 1995 (as have all other EU member states).
On the Map: Countries shown in Green are members of the WTO. Countries shown in Blue are members represented by the EU. Yellow and Red are either not members, or 'observers'.
The £19,000,000,000 currently being paid annually to the EU by the UK, will then be used to smooth over the initial full transfer period from one organisation to the other; and I presume to pay some WTO membership fees. As the EU (as a unit) is also a member, there will be no trade restrictions between the UK and the EU; they will simply be carried out under WTO regulations, rather than those of the EU. It should be noted that the WTO controls 96.4% of world global trade, and 96.7% of world global GDP. Hardly a poor cousin.
By trying to 'punish' the UK, Brussels has shot itself in the foot. Next year it will have to face the fact that the UK's HUGE annual fee will no longer be forthcoming; they will then have to pay for their federal ambitions with a much smaller purse.
With France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Greece (the wealthier EU countries) in some turmoil, the EU was desperate for Britain's contributions to keep the show on the road. Sorry Juncker; but as of April Fool's Day next year, the UK's cash will be staying in the UK!
Of course none of this might happen, and we might see Farage heading for Brussels, to have a fist-fight with Herman Van Rumpy-Pumpy, and Rees-Mogg swearing at Donald Tusk, in Latin. Anything is possible.
We'll all have to wait and see, but the above is 'a possibility'
They, that is to say Germany and France will be wondering how they are going to finance their dangerous idea, the European Army Project. They can't even raise their full NATO membership fee as it is. Could it be the case the French tax hikes are a panic measure a way to raise the extra lucre I wonder. Austria in order to preserve its neutrality has already stated it will not be joining the EU Army. The EU will push ahead and recruit a handful of troublesome Balkan countries, as a source of cheap food,raw materials and labour. And then there's the Ukraine problem. This will be followed by the Moldavia and Georgia problem. Watch this space. God knows what the Russians are making of it all. Perhaps the day is not far away when they will take action and start by turning off the EUs gas tap and export it all to China in response to the EUs constant interference in countries under Russian influence which Germany signed up to keep out of at the time of Reagan - Gorbachev and is now from Russia. perspective not ad hearing to. Maybe the EU Army will one day patrol the Irish border, on the southern side. German and French soldiers. Or maybe even Spanish. It'll be a comedy of terrors. And as for Scotland, they'll have to rejoin on EU terms if they vote to go back into Europe and welcome not only the EU Army to patrol Hadrians Wall and patrol the Baltic Sea and accept the euro as their new currency. Close all those Scottish banks that like to print their own money. The poor proud Scots a mere colony of Brussels and Berlin. Well, what could be worse? Robbie Burns will be turning over in his grave.
ReplyDeleteThere's a vote today to choose Faru Merkels successor. Frau Kramm is getting a lot media attention.
DeleteIt's true that the few net contributors to the EU coffers, will be the same ones who will need to subsidise any EU Army. With the way the EU finances are at present, this would just about cripple them.
DeleteAustrian soldiers stopped a white Ford Transit van the day before yesterday near the eastern border. Crammed in the back were 21 Syrians and Iraqis including a woman and a 3 year old child. They have all applied for asylum. The report didn't say where they were trying to get to. The driver was arrested and will be interviewed. The EU wants stock Frontex with 10,000 more personnel but they have no money do do so. The whole construction is like the children's rhyme about the house that Jack built.
DeleteMacron has ordered 89,000 police on duty for this weekend's demo. I hope there's no mutiny in the ranks. Some police where cheered last week when they took off their riot helmets. I wonder what they want this EU Army for? Did Macron say it was to fight China, Russia "and even America" in one of his infamous speeches? Or is is this another case of fake news? I remember him claiming the Russians were interfering in the French elections and after he'd been elected somebody in French intelligence saying they'd checked and it wasn't true. Ach, it's maybe it's my fake memory playing trick with me again! Come back General De Gaulle - all is forgiven.
DeleteWell, all the reading I have done on the subject and you have clarified in a blog post. I think May and her supporters (she has them?) will be very working very hard behind the scenes before the vote, so I don't take it for granted that she will lose the vote. We live in such interesting times.
ReplyDeleteThe more we read, and hear, on the subject, the more confused we become. It would be good to have some concrete agreement on our future. I think the WTO route is as good as any. Certainly better than the fudge we're being offered at the moment.
DeleteAnd off we trot to Marrakech on Tuesday wagging our tails.
ReplyDeleteIs that another migration summit?
DeleteIt is a UN treaty signing ceremony that will create a hate crime to call economic migrants economic migrants. We trot along merrily.
DeleteBefore long it will be a crime to call propaganda propaganda and newspeak newspeak. Orwell warned us but we thought it could never happen in Britain. Goebbels must be smiling in his grave.
DeleteWhat will we have to call them as from Tuesday? 'Economic funsters'?
DeleteA report in German from Paris on radio by a French journalist the words Rothschild, Macron, the Provinces, the long term problems, nothing done in the past 40 years, the poor State of the Economy, the 9% unemployment, and even the word Revolution were today in the air. Fasten your seatbelt Cro!
DeleteAnd just wait till Robots are the only employees; then the revolution really will begin.
DeleteReferendums are not legally binding. Parliament could still decide to Remain in the EEC. But Theresa (Remainer) will not allow this and puts her party before what's best for her country. Mrs T hated referendums.
ReplyDeleteI seem to remember her saying "Brexit means Brexit", but maybe I got it wrong.
DeleteActually we might just become a State of China if we don't watch out.
ReplyDeleteI think that's happening anyway; just look at Africa.
DeleteWe can thank George Osborne for this for nuclear power the Chinese way. Let us hope that we don't go with tails wagging the same way to Huawei Telecoms for 5G.
DeleteI just discovered the Chienese own Southampton FC. Only know that because they have a new manager - an Austrian. Herr Ohrhasel (it means Mr Rabbit Ears - he even said so himself at his press conference. He's a man come up through the ranks speaks good English and comes with his own brand of humour. I'm not a Klopp, he said.) He was last at Leipzig.
DeleteIf the Chinese stuck to football clubs it would not be so worrying.
DeleteFrance is closing down this weekend.
ReplyDeleteSales of thick plywood, and baseball bats, have soared. Expect sparks to fly!
DeleteThis afternoon I drove down to Auchan near Annecy and the motorway exit was already slowed down/semi-blocked. When I got to the store they had huge signs saying that supplies of personal hygiene products were in short supply because of blockages at their warehouses. Glad I've already got a baseball bat behind my bedroom door!
DeleteI'm staying in. It's market day at my nearby tiny town (village), and I won't even risk going there.
DeleteYou make it sound almost attractive. I hope it does work out like that. All we would need next is for Ireland to leave the EU then all would be cosy.
ReplyDeleteI think a United Ireland might be better, but I don't supposed THEY think so.
DeleteWell, that makes more sense than most of what I have read on this. I hope you are right.
ReplyDeleteI probably won't be. They'll think-up some other hair-brained scheme I expect.
DeleteI read the news every morning to see what has/is transpired, then go on about my day.
ReplyDeleteBest to keep au fait, but then to ignore it. You have the right idea.
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