The UK is to have a referendum before the end of 2017 on whether she should stay part of the EU or not. Above is how things stand as of a couple of days ago (please ignore the happy couple... I couldn't cut them out).
The present refugee/migrant crisis is going to have a huge effect on the outcome as you can see by the above. Any other reasons for quitting, or not, probably won't even be discussed, it's become a one issue question.
I have said many times before; of course the UK should take in as many genuine refugees as ask for asylum, maybe starting with women and children. This has always been British policy, and I hope it always will. But daily TV and newspaper reporting of the Calais migrants trying to smash their way into England is not helping with Dave's hopes for a 'remain' vote.
The ins and outs of EU membership are complicated. Most European countries rely on a certain percentage of their trade with wealthy UK, and to lose that would be disastrous for them. One would hope that much of this would continue regardless of our membership, but any existing or new agreements would HAVE to be reciprocal.
If Germany would want to continue selling their VW's, Merc's, Audi's, and BMW's to a non-EC UK, then she would have to take our products in return; there would be no longer be any EU regulations restricting the UK on insisting as much.
If Dave wants to see a 'remain' vote, he'd better start tidying up the mess, or he could be in for a very nasty shock; and a lasting reputation to accompany it. It's all well and good being the only country to live up to its promises to the UN and to foreign aid, but that won't swing the vote if the physical refugee/migrant problem isn't solved.
N.B. No, Cro was NOT consulted in the recent poll, above. It might have been slightly different if I had been.
De Gaulle was right when he said 'No' all those years ago because the UK has only cherry picked and never fully immersed it's self into the EC/EU
ReplyDeleteThe UK has never wanted a United States of Europe. When we entered it was to a 'Common Market'... which it never was!
DeleteI agree with Heron above that we should have listened to De Gaulle and never joined in the first place. W thought it was all about marketing between member states. Ha ha. Now look at it. However we have too much to lose if we vote to come out so we might as well stay in, the migrant "crisis" is immaterial to whether we stay in or not.
ReplyDeleteAs long as Dave can ditch some of the sillier EU rules, of course we should stay in. But the migrant crisis could easily sway the public, who seem to see nothing else.
DeleteWhere was the survey carried out? It it's like many of the recent polls it's wrong by at least 15 percent.
ReplyDeleteEurope brings very little trading benefit. They even have to count anything sent via Rotterdam worldwide as a European export to make the figures look good.
The truth is our country would have been better off reforming the Commonwealth into a trading bloc. 55 countries encompassing one third of the worlds resources and dozens of emerging markets. Instead we are stuck with trading in the sclerotic EU where we all make similar products in a closed market. Madness!
My knowledge of the ins and outs of membership is sorely lacking, but it does seem crazy that a referendum could be heavily weighted on one side by an issue that really has very little to do with it.
DeleteYou missed Rolls Royce and Mini from the list of German cars.
ReplyDeleteand probably a few others too!
DeleteThe present migrant crisis will no doubt have tipped the balance no end - people, in the final analysis, are pretty selfish. Let us hope it is partially solved by then.
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts exactly!
DeleteSteve Jobs' parents were Syrian immigrants to the U.S. Just sayin'!
ReplyDeleteSyrian father and Swiss mother, I believe; before he was adopted.
DeleteAn interesting post for my first visit to your blog Cro. I remember immersing myself in the pros and cons at the time of the original referendum and being very much in favour with both my head and my heart. The global economy and things like the use of the UK by Nissan as a way into Europe (to name one small thing) and our mutual economic reliance is important. Most of the Commonwealth countries seem to me to have economic ties far removed from the UK and in a worst case scenario most of our food imports and exports could well be hit by import and export duties. It would be a bureaucratic nightmare to work out and potentially very expensive. What happens too to the reciprocal health agreements for visitors and ex-pats living abroad. I try not to think about it all because it's potentially too depressing.
ReplyDeleteAnd the vote could be swung by one issue, rather than looking at the wider picture.
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